March 3rd, 2005

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Смертность Эстонцев И Русских В Эстонии, До И После.

В период с 1989го по 2000й год, этническая разница в ожидаемой продолжительности жизни между эстонцами и русскими возрасла с 0.4 до 6.1 года у мужчин и с 0.6 до 3.5 года у женщин.

J Epidemiol Community Health. 2004 Jul;58(7):583-9.

Increasing ethnic differences in mortality in Estonia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Leinsalu M, Vagero D, Kunst AE.

Stockholm Centre on Health of Societies in Transition, University College of South Stockholm, Huddinge, Sweden. Mall.Leinsalu@sh.se

STUDY OBJECTIVE: This study examined the change in ethnic differences in mortality in Estonia 1989-2000. DESIGN: Two unlinked cross sectional census based analyses were compared. Total and cause specific mortality was analysed for ethnic Estonians and Russians. The absolute differences in mortality were evaluated through life expectancy at birth and age standardised mortality rates. Relative differences were assessed by mortality rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals, calculated using Poisson regression. SETTING: Estonia before and after the fall of the Soviet Union. PARTICIPANTS: Individual cause specific death data for 1987-1990 (69549 deaths) and for 1999-2000 (33809 deaths) came from the national mortality database. Population denominators came from the population censuses of 1989 and 2000. MAIN RESULTS: In the period 1989-2000, ethnic differences in life expectancy increased from 0.4 years to 6.1 years among men and from 0.6 years to 3.5 years among women. In 2000, Russians had a higher mortality than Estonians in all age groups and for almost all selected causes of death. The largest differences were found for some alcohol related causes of death especially in 2000. CONCLUSIONS: Political and economic upheaval, increasing poverty, and alcohol consumption can be considered the main underlying causes of the widening ethnic mortality gap.

PMID: 15194720
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Россия Afterwards

Bull World Health Organ. 2003;81(11):778-87. Epub 2004 Jan 20.

Comment in:
Bull World Health Organ. 2003;81(11):787-8.

Health expectancy in the Russian Federation: a new perspective on the health divide in Europe.

Andreev EM, McKee M, Shkolnikov VM.

Institute of Economic Forecasting, Moscow, Russian Federation.

OBJECTIVES: To compare life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in the Russian Federation and in countries of Eastern and Western Europe. METHODS: WHO mortality data and data on self-reported health from the World Values Survey and the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey were used to compare the above three regions. Life expectancy was calculated using Sullivan's method, with years of life lived divided into healthy and unhealthy. The gap in healthy life expectancy between the Russian Federation and Western Europe was examined by decomposing the difference by gender and age. FINDINGS: The probability of remaining alive and healthy declines faster in the Russian Federation than in Western Europe, with the gap between Eastern Europe and the Russian Federation widening at older ages. In the Russian Federation, this rapid decline is due mainly to the high probability of death or of poor health for men and women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There is a large toll of premature male mortality in the Russian Federation but there also appears to be a substantial burden of ill-health among women. As in other countries, the responses of men and women to adversity differ, leading to premature death in men but survival in a poor state of health in women. Epidemiological studies including objective measures of health would help policy-makers to estimate more precisely the scale and nature of this problem. Policy-makers must recognize that health expectancy in the Russian Federation is reduced in both men and women.

PMID: 14758403

Полностью статья лежит здесь: http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0042-96862003001100003&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en
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Россия Afterwards II

Bottom line: В России в 1992-2001м годах умерло на 2.5-3 миллиона больше, чем можно было бы ожидать по уровню смертности 1991 года. Хуже всего-Сибирь и дальний Восток. Вывод сделан только на основании данных по смертности, и никакого отношения к снижению рождаемости или эмиграции не имеет.

BMJ. 2003 Oct 25;327(7421):964.

Russian mortality trends for 1991-2001: analysis by cause and region.

Men T, Brennan P, Boffetta P, Zaridze D.

Institute of Carcinogenesis, Cancer Research Centre, Kashirskoye Shosse 24, 115478 Moscow, Russia.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate trends in Russian mortality for 1991-2001 with particular reference to trends since the Russian economic crisis in 1998 and to geographical differences within Russia. DESIGN: Analysis of data obtained from the Russian State statistics committee for 1991-2001. All cause mortality was compared between seven federal regions. Comparison of cause specific rates was conducted for young (15-34 years) and middle aged adults (35-69 years). The number of Russian adults who died before age 70 in the period 1992-2001 and whose deaths were attributable to increased mortality was calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age, sex, and cause specific mortality standardised to the world population. RESULTS: Mortality increased substantially after the economic crisis in 1998, with life expectancy falling to 58.9 years among men and 71.8 years among women by 2001. Most of these fluctuations were due to changes in mortality from vascular disease and violent deaths (mainly suicides, homicides, unintentional poisoning, and traffic incidents) among young and middle aged adults. Trends were similar in all parts of Russia. An extra 2.5-3 million Russian adults died in middle age in the period 1992-2001 than would have been expected based on 1991 mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Russian mortality was already high in 1991 and has increased further in the subsequent decade. Fluctuations in mortality seem to correlate strongly with underlying economic and societal factors. On an individual level, alcohol consumption is strongly implicated in being at least partially responsible for many of these trends.

PMID: 14576248

Полностью статья здесь: http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/327/7421/964
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Зодиак В Действии, Или 8е Марта Близко-Близко

Гм...ну, если наука не врет, то те киевляне, кто родился в апреле-июле живут в среднем на 2.6 года меньше тех, кто родился в конце года?! Возможно, тут дело в том, что Тельцы и Раки идут в школу, когда им едва исполнилось 7 лет, а Стрельцы и Скорпионы идут в школу с 8 лет? Так-с, отнимаем 9 месяцев...и получаем, что Февраль-Март-лучшее время для зачатия киевлянина, а худшее-Июль-Август.

Adv Gerontol. 2002;10:29-34.

[Effect of the season of birth on the mortality structure and life expectancy of residents of Kiev]

Vaiserman AM.

Institute of Gerontology Academy of Medical Science of Ukraine, 67, Vyshgorodskaya str., Kyiv, 04114, Ukraine. vaiserman@geront.kiev.ua

Longevity was significantly associated with season of birth in 101,634 individuals who died in Kiev during the period 1990-2000. Longevity values were lowest for subjects born in April-July, and highest for individuals born at the end of the year. Minimum and maximum longevity by month of birth differed by 2.6 years in men and 2.3 years in women. It is shown that the persons born in the fourth quarter, died from accidents or suicide less often, than those born in the second quarter. That can testify their better social adaptability. Age of death of the persons who have died from age-related diseases (neoplastic and circulatory) depend on a season (month) of birth to the greatest degree. The obtained results testify that the early (pre- and/or postnatal) seasonal factors influence on age-related mortality and longevity of the people.

PMID: 12577688